Annual Baseline
₹9,547 Cr
FY collection run-rate
Districts Below Target
8/8
Lowest: Gorakhpur
Baseline Illicit Share
12%
2.4%
Open Decisions
4
Alerts awaiting triage
Policy Levers
Adjust levers to simulate the financial and social outcome
0%
12
0%
20
Simulated Outcome
Projected annual position vs current baseline
+3.3% net revenue
Net revenue
₹9861 Cr
Illicit share
8.5%
Compliance index
82
Enforcement ROI
17.9x
Advisory: Marginal improvement. Consider raising enforcement deployment for higher leakage recovery ROI.
88%
Revenue upside identified
Closing the target gap in the 3 weakest districts adds an estimated ₹58 Cr this fiscal.
Leakage pressure point
Warehouse-to-retail reconciliation is the largest single loss stage at 7 index points.
Enforcement blind spot
Border corridors carry 41% of predicted smuggling but only 22% of squad coverage.